Changes in Climatic Range of the Emerald Ash Borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in the Northern Hemisphere.

The climatic range of a species is a set of points in geographical space in which the climate allows the stable existence of populations of the species under a favorable combination of other factors of its population dynamics. For the Northern Hemisphere, using a special set of climate predictors, the climatic range of the emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis (EAB), a dangerous invasive pest of ash plantations, was assessed. Calculations were carried out for climates of 1990–1999, 2030–2039, and 2050–2059 under the SSP7.0 scenario, which describes a fairly moderate anthropogenic impact on the climate. Schematic maps indicating the contemporary distribution zones of the EAB have been constructed. In North America, the borer has colonized almost two-thirds of its climatic range. There is no reason to believe that this expansion will be stopped. In the primary zone of distribution of the borer—in East Asia—and in Europe, the climatic ranges are also not fully occupied. Further expansion of the borer in its primary zone of distribution is expected to be comparatively modest owing to the entire set of co-evolutionary biological factors restraining its number. On the contrary, in Europe the borer will be able to reach the Atlantic coast, since such restraints are either absent there or are just being formed. As calculations show, with further changes in the global climate, the dominant trend will be the movement of the northern limits of the EAB climatic range further north. At the same time, within the territory of Russia, it is also expected to expand into the Asian part and Siberia, along a latitudinal band of 50°–60° N with a climate suitable for A. planipennis. As soon as 2030–2039, in an eastern direction, this band will reach Krasnoyarsk krai and will further spread eastward. Therefore, when establishing ash plantations in this area, it is advisable not to use ash species that are not resistant to this pest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]