The Analysis and the Impact of Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Health of Residents in the River Niger Basin Development Authority Area, West Africa.

This study investigates the impact of surface temperature anomalies on the health of residents within the River Niger Basin Development Authority (RIBDA) enclave, which covers Nigeria, Niger, and Mali in West Africa, with a focus on the regional implications for public health. Historical climate data from 1985 to 2014, sourced from the Climatic Research Unit Time‐Series, Version 3.22 (CRU TS 3.22), was analyzed to comprehend past climate patterns and establish a baseline for future comparisons. Predictions for future climate conditions (2015–2044) were derived by adjusting the CRU data using temperature projections from the Community Climate System Model 4 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. To assess the potential impacts of these climate changes, particularly during the boreal summer season of July‐August‐September (JAS), the study utilized the Hydrology, Entomology, and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS). Findings indicate that surface temperature can intricately influence disease transmission, with varied effects on parameters such as Ro, EIR, prevalence, and immunity index. Observations revealed fluctuations in temperature anomalies over the years, with negative anomalies in 1991–1995 and positive anomalies in subsequent years. Although precise predictions for 2016–2044 are challenging based solely on data trends from 1985 to 2015, continued temperature rises could potentially lead to increased disease prevalence and decreased immunity index. Moreover, the analysis identified a notable temporal increase in mean annual temperature and mean annual maximum temperature from 1999 to 2020, suggesting a faster warming trend in maximum temperatures compared to minimum temperatures. This increase in temperature variability may alter the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season, affecting water availability, accessibility, and consumption, consequently fostering conditions conducive to health‐related diseases. By incorporating predicted long‐term temperature changes due to greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining current inter‐annual climate patterns, this approach allows researchers to anticipate potential future health implications in the studied regions. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we explored how malaria spreads in Niger, Nigeria, and Mali, focusing on the role of climate factors like temperature and rainfall. In Niger, the potential for malaria spread was found to be low to moderate. Although mosquito bite rates were low, the population had low immunity, making them more susceptible to diseases like malaria and dengue. High temperatures can increase the prevalence of mosquito‐borne diseases, leading to higher illness and death rates, especially among vulnerable groups like children and pregnant women. Unusual temperature patterns in Niger affected disease‐related factors like transmission rates and immunity, though this may not hold for all diseases. In Nigeria, no clear link between rising temperatures and malaria transmission was found, but rainfall played a bigger role. More rain creates favorable conditions for mosquitoes, which can increase malaria spread. Mali's situation was complex, with no clear trends over time. The relationship between temperature and disease transmission involved multiple factors, like rainfall and humidity. Increased mosquito activity during higher temperatures could lead to more malaria cases, posing a public health challenge. Key Points: Populations in Niger, Nigeria, and Mali face risks from diseases due to high mosquito bite rates and immunity levelsHigh temperatures in Niger increase disease spread, while in Nigeria, they may boost mosquito breeding, affecting malaria transmissionThe complex link between temperature and disease, influenced by factors like rainfall and humidity, poses prediction challenges [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]