Sectoral dynamics and environmental quality in Côte d'Ivoire: assessing the impact of structural transformation.

As global consumption patterns continue to exert unprecedented pressure on ecological systems, the urgent need for sustainable development frameworks has become increasingly evident. This study explores the critical intersection of structural transformation and environmental quality within the context of Côte d'Ivoire, as the country navigates its National Development Plan aimed at structural transformation. Specifically, this research explores how structural changes across the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors impact environmental quality in Côte d'Ivoire. Employing a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, it investigates the asymmetric effects of sectoral contributions to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the ecological footprint, distinguishing between positive and negative shocks during the period 1961–2021. The findings reveal that positive changes in the agricultural sector's share reduce the ecological footprint by 0.222% in the long term, with no significant short-term impact. Conversely, a 1% negative shock in the sector results in a 0.391% increase in the ecological footprint in the short term. For the industrial sector, a 1% increase in its share leads to a 0.178% reduction in the ecological footprint over the long term, while negative shocks show no significant impact. The service sector demonstrates a positive environmental outcome, where a 1% increase in value-added reduces the ecological footprint by 0.368% in the long term and by 0.288% in the short term. For policymakers, these results highlight the importance of promoting sustainable practices within the agricultural and industrial sectors to achieve long-term environmental goals in Côte d'Ivoire. These results are critical for the implementation of Côte d'Ivoire's National Development Plan, which emphasizes the important role of agriculture and industry in its economic transformation, while addressing environmental sustainability. Impact statement: This study provides important understanding into the relationship between structural transformation and environmental quality in Côte d'Ivoire. The research reveals how sectoral shifts in the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors influence the country's ecological footprint, with a focus on the asymmetric effects of these shifts on environmental outcomes. The findings show that while the agricultural and industrial sectors can reduce the ecological footprint over the long term, negative short-term impacts can arise from rapid sectoral changes, particularly in agriculture. A growing service sector appears to have positive environmental contributions. These results are particularly relevant for Côte d'Ivoire's policymakers, emphasizing the need to adopt sustainable practices across key sectors to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability. They also highlight the importance of promoting green growth strategies and aligning sector-specific policies with the country's long-term environmental objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]