Nowcasting GDP growth during the COVID-19 pandemic: a simple rule that made it through.

By using the composite coincident indicator, we document the real-time nowcasting performance of Latvian GDP growth during the COVID-19 period. The Latvian Economic Barometer accurately predicted GDP growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially, in the second and third quarters of 2020, a period that proved challenging for more sophisticated econometric models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]