Projected population exposure to precipitation extremes in China by the end of the twenty-first century: trends, change points, and spatial variability.

The persistent occurrence of extreme precipitation events presents considerable challenges to the well-being, assets, and sustainable progress of the population in China. During this century, the trends, change points, and spatial variability of population exposure to precipitation extremes remain unclear. This study assesses how the exposure changes in future decades, using climate predictions from CMIP6 models and population projections under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We identify the initial decade and duration when exposure exceeds dangerous level, and also reveal the movements of the geographical centroids in different regions. It is found that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, both precipitation extremes and population exposure to these extremes would be more severe, in contrast to the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, 47.88% of the study area is projected to experience dangerously high levels of population exposure to precipitation extremes compared to the baseline. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the areas experiencing dangerous exposure levels would increase by 4.11% by the 2030s, with 18.76% of areas experiencing earlier occurrences. In the North China Plain, the geographic centroid of population exposure is expected to move toward southward. These findings aid governmental authorities in identifying crucial timeframes, devising effective response strategies, and adjusting spatial disaster reduction resource allocation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]