Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion.

One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km2 each, or 400 km2 in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (± $\pm $15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases. Plain Language Summary: Ice wedge thermokarst pools are meter‐scale water features with a distinctive shape that form on the tundra in response to permafrost thaw. They occupy pits in the ground surface caused by the melting of ice wedges, or subsurface ice bodies which form an interconnected network that manifests at the surface as polygonal ground. Ice wedge thermokarst pool growth not only signals permafrost thaw, but also creates feedbacks on subsequent thaw by altering the surface energy balance, which may accelerate carbon release from permafrost‐affected soils. There are many prior observations of pool growth, but they have typically been locally or regionally focused, and circumpolar analyses are rare. We analyzed recent (2008–2020) time series of sub‐meter resolution satellite imagery at 27 survey areas throughout the Arctic to create one of the largest observational records yet of ice wedge thermokarst pool extent. We then analyzed which environmental and meteorological factors have been most strongly associated with recent trends in pool area at the circumpolar scale. Overall, we found evidence for recent pool growth at 44% (± $\pm $15%) of the survey areas. There was no difference in the recent rate of air temperature increase between sites with and without expanding pools. However, sites with ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion were hillier and had more silt‐rich soils than sites with stable or shrinking pools. Key Points: Decadal‐scale thermokarst pool expansion was observed at 12 (plus or minus 4) of 27 landscapes monitored throughout the ArcticExpanding thermokarst pools were most likely to be found in topographically convex positions within hilly landscapesTrends in air temperature alone were a poor predictor of recent thermokarst pool expansion [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]