Investigating Economic Prosperity and Recession in Isfahan Province Using the Regional Capital Matrix.

Economic prosperity (recession) means that the GDP increases (decreases) between two consecutive periods. One of the important approaches in examining economic prosperity and recession is the use of the capital matrix. This matrix is a suitable solution for providing the analysis of calculable general equilibrium patterns such as the dynamic input-output model. However, the main problem in the country is the lack of regional capital matrix statistical data. Therefore, it is practically impossible to check economic prosperity and recession at the regional level. The aim of the current research is to provide a non-statistical solution based on the theoretical foundations of the data to estimate the regional capital matrix from the national capital matrix. Therefore, an effort is made to estimate the capital matrix of Isfahan province with the help of the development of Charm's non-statistical method by regionalizing the national capital matrix. To validate the estimates made from the development of the charm approach, the data of provincial and construction bank credits of the agricultural and construction sectors for the year 2015 will be used. Also, the capital formation data of the industry and mining sector were also extracted from the Isfahan province yearbook for the same year. On the other hand, in the following, the effect of time delay on the value of regional capital formation will be investigated using the Charm method developed. The results show that as the time interval increases, the estimated capital formation value of the region will be closer to the real capital formation value of the sector. This is truer in sectors that are inherently more disruptive. On the other hand, the results show that the most capital productions are related to industry, construction and agriculture sectors. Also, most capital purchases are related to industry, services and real estate sectors. On the other hand, the analysis of the regional capital matrix shows economic prosperity in 2015 for Isfahan province [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]