Quantifying the potential of hybrid poplar plantation expansion: an application of land suitability using an expert-based fuzzy logic approach.

The current demand for wood products is growing globally. Hybrid poplars are fast growing trees and it is beneficial to expand their cultivation area. Digital mapping techniques based on land suitability assessment can effectively support land use decision-making processes in this perspective. The aim of this study was to develop a model to produce land suitability maps to determine the potential production area of hybrid poplar (Populus × canadensis Moench) in Italy. The evaluation was based on a fuzzy logic procedure to generate a raster map with a pixel resolution of 250 m over the country. The modelling approach is planning-oriented: the objective is to predict, on a national scale, the suitability of the land for poplar cultivation by taking into account environmental factors for which geodatabases with adequate and comparable spatial resolution are available on a national scale in Italy. Georeferenced databases of experimental poplar plantations were used as calibration dataset. The assessment identified around 145,000 hectares of highly suitable land and around 1,926,500 hectares of suitable land for hybrid poplar cultivation in Italy. These areas are mainly located in northern Italy (around 36% of the territory) and, to a lesser extent, in central Italy (around 19%) and in southern Italy and the islands (less than 3%). The modelling approach adopted can be easily replicated in other geographical areas or at finer scales, provided that appropriate data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]