Regression Model For Forecasting Gold Price.

This study investigates the determinants of gold price movements in India by “multiple regression models” using Monthly time series data from 2019 to 2024. The key variables used include Sensex, the BSE stock exchange index price movement, Exchange Rate, Crude oil price movement, Inflation and Global Bond, based on the correlation coefficient, reveal a significant positive relationship between gold price movements and other factors of price movement. Sensex index of BSE, Indian stocks market, Gpld man sach global multi-sector bond funds, and Crude Oil monthly data from MCX index. The Exchange rate between INR and USD only revealed positive relationships. The determinants, whose correlation factors were more than 0.5 were found to have a positive association with gold price movements. Conversely, Goldman Sachs bonds and inflation revealed a less than 0.5 correlation factor showing a less significant positive relationship with gold price movements. These results have significant policy implications for gold producers and investors, as Sensex, crude oil, exchange rate and bond price movement are important sources of information as the determinants of gold price movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]