The paradox of aging population and firm digital transformation in China.

Although a number researchers have acknowledged that the aging population inhibits firm digital transformation, others find it promoting digital transformation in some firms. As the relevant literature to clarify such paradox is still scare, this paper wants to fill the gap regarding the labor cost theory, the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis, and the human capital externality theory. Based on the empirical tests of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2001 to 2022, this study detected a U-shaped relationship between the aging population and digital transformation. In terms of the institutional environment, higher marketization strengthens the U-shaped relationship by making the slopes on either side of it steeper. However, higher minimum wage levels weaken the U-shaped relationship. In terms of firm strategy, firms with stronger marketing capabilities strengthened the U-shaped relationship. However, firms with higher customer concentration weakened the U-shaped relationship. Overall, we enriched scholarly understanding of the impact of the aging population on digital transformation and demonstrated the dual potential impact of aging populations. Instead of assuming they are detrimental to the economy and society, positive contributions in the form of innovation and progress for companies can be detected. Highlights: • Aging is an unavoidable demographic problem in China, with very complex social roots behind it. • Increased aging has thwarted China's digital economy, but aging is not the only negative impact on digitization. • The digital transformation process of Chinese listed companies is distinctly heterogeneous in the face of aging shocks. • By taking into account the institutional environment and strategic development, Chinese companies can seek a proactive path of development to adapt to aging, and even accelerate digital transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]