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Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield Shock.
- Source :
- Working Papers -- U.S. Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers; Jul2024, Issue 1392, preceding p1-77, 78p
- Publication Year :
- 2024
-
Abstract
- Existing high-frequency monetary policy shocks explain surprisingly little variation in stock prices and exchange rates around FOMC announcements. Further, both of these asset classes display heightened volatility relative to non-announcement times. We use a heteroskedasticity-based procedure to estimate a "Fed non-yield shock", which is orthogonal to yield changes and is identified from excess volatility in the S&P 500 and various dollar exchange rates. A positive non-yield shock raises stock prices in the U.S. and around the globe, and depreciates the dollar against all major currencies. The non-yield shock is essentially uncorrelated with previous monetary policy shocks and its effects are large in comparison. Its strong effects on the VIX and other risk-related measures point towards a dominant risk premium channel. We show that the non-yield shock can be related to Fed communications and that its existence has implications for the identification of structural monetary policy shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- Issue :
- 1392
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Working Papers -- U.S. Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- 179058983
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2024.1392