Reliability and Validity of Predicted Performance in the Severe-Intensity Domain From the 3-Minute All-Out Running Test.

Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the reliability and validity of the predicted distance–time relationship in the severe-intensity domain from a 3-minute all-out running test (3MT). Methods: Twelve runners performed two 3MTs (test #1 and test #2) on an outdoor 400-m track after familiarization. Eighteen-hertz Global Positioning System data were used to estimate critical speed (CS) and distance covered above CS (D′). Time to cover 1200 and 3600 m (T1200 and T3600, respectively) was predicted using CS and D′ estimates from each 3MT. Eight runners performed 2 time trials in a single visit to assess real T1200 and T3600. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and standard errors of measurement were calculated for reliability analysis. Results: Good to excellent reliability was found for CS, T1200, and T3600 estimates from 3MT (ICC >.95, standard error of measurement between 1.3% and 2.2%), and poor reliability was found for D′ (ICC =.55, standard error of measurement = 27%). Predictions from 3MT were significantly correlated to actual T1200 (r =.87 and.85 for test #1 and test #2, respectively) and T3600 (r =.91 and.82 for test #1 and test #2, respectively). The calculation of error prediction showed a systematic error between predicted and real T3600 (6.4% and 7.8% for test #1 and test #2, respectively, P <.01) contrary to T1200 (P >.1). Random error was between 4.4% and 6.1% for both distances. Conclusions: Despite low reliability of D′, 3MT yielded a reliable predicted distance–time relationship allowing repeated measures to evidence change with training adaptation. However, caution should be taken with prediction of performance potential of a single individual because of substantial random error and significant underestimation of T3600. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]