MULTI-SCENARIO PREDICTION AND REGULATION STRATEGY OF CARBON BUDGET IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN OF CHINA UNDER THE "DOUBLE CARBON" TARGET.

Under the increasingly severe climate crisis, it is of great significance to carry out research on carbon budget calculation and multi-scenario prediction under the "double carbon" target for realizing regional low-carbon and high-quality development. Taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China as the research area, this paper firstly calculates the carbon budget of the YRB from 2000 to 2020 and analyzes its spatiotemporal change. Then, we simulated carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, and net carbon budget during 2030-2100 under the SSP1-5 scenario. Finally, the regulation strategies of carbon balance of the YRB were proposed from four aspects: strengthening ecological governance, improving land use mode, optimizing industrial structure and advocating low-carbon life. Our results showed: (1) The overall carbon sequestration and carbon emission show a trend of fluctuating increase during 2000 to 2020, but the increase rate of carbon emission is far greater than carbon storage. The net carbon emission during 2000-2020 is negative, which is manifested as a carbon sink area. (2) The order of carbon sequestration of the provinces in the YRB during 2030-2100 is the same under the SSP1-5 scenario, and the descending order is the following: Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, Ningxia, and Shandong. (3) The STIRPAT model can be used to predict the carbon emissions of the YRB in the future with high precision. (4) In terms of net carbon emissions, under the SSP1-5 scenario, the YRB will be a carbon sink area from 2030 to 2080, and a carbon source area from 2080 to 2100. (5) Different provinces have different paths to low-carbon development, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai maintain a good low-carbon development path under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP4 scenarios, Ningxia and Shandong maintain a good low-carbon development path under SSP1 and SSP2 scenarios, Shanxi maintains a good low-carbon development path under SSP1 and SSP3 scenarios, and Gansu, Shaanxi and Henan maintain a good low-carbon development path under the SSP3 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]