The Sahm Rule, Explained (By Claudia Sahm).

The article explores the Sahm Rule, a recession predictor developed by economist Claudia Sahm. The rule suggests that if the unemployment rate increases by more than half a percentage point within a year, it indicates a recession. However, Sahm acknowledges the limitations of the rule and expresses discomfort with it being named after her. While the current economic situation in the US has triggered the Sahm Rule, Sahm believes the country is not currently in a recession but highlights concerning trends that require attention. She hopes to find a better rule to predict economic downturns and advocates for an early warning system to provide assistance. [Extracted from the article]