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Research on investment evaluation of highway projects based on system dynamics model.

Authors :
Yonghua Liu
Hao Deng
Hanqi Gao
Wei Ni
Source :
AIMS Mathematics; 2024, Vol. 9 Issue 8, p20326-20349, 24p
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

Aiming at the deficiencies presented by the traditional methods of highway project investment evaluation, the proposed highway investment evaluation method was based on system dynamics. First, we constructed an evaluation index system from profitability, solvency, and risk resistance and clarified the positive and negative causality within the investment evaluation system of highway projects; second, we determined the boundaries of the system dynamics model and divided it into six sub-systems, namely, income, cash flow, investment evaluation, profit, cost, investment and financing, and liabilities; and then, we established the system dynamics model of highway investment evaluation based on the sub-systems. The model made up for the limitations of the traditional discounted cash flow method; finally, taking the China's Yunnan Province an Expressway project as an example, using VENSIM software simulation, we get the evaluation results of the system dynamics model and make a comparative analysis with the discounted cash flow method, which showed that the calculation inaccuracies of the NPV and other financial indicators were in a reasonable range, and the evaluation method had strong operability and practicability. The system dynamics investment evaluation model provided a systematic, intuitive, whole-process investment evaluation method, which provided a theoretical basis for the analysis and decision-making of the investment effect of highway projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
24736988
Volume :
9
Issue :
8
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
AIMS Mathematics
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
178904268
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3934/math.2024989