Prioritizing Forestation in China Through Incorporating Biogeochemical and Local Biogeophysical Effects.

Forestation is a key strategy for climate mitigation in China through its biogeochemical (BGC) effect of ecosystem carbon sequestration. Additionally, the BGC effect of forestation can be either reinforced or counteracted by concurrent biogeophysical processes (BGP effect) resulting in local land surface warming or cooling, which can be translated into CO2e (i.e., BGC effect) using a local transient climate response. Previous evaluations of the climate mitigation potential of future forestation in China have, however, focused on the BGC effect only and neglected the BGP effect, potentially leading to suboptimal forestation areas. Here, we determined priority forestation areas in China by incorporating both effects to maximize its global climate mitigation effect. Our results suggest an additional 167.2 Mha potentially suitable for forestation in China, exceeding the largest forestation target (86.8 Mha) possibly assumed by the government in 2060. The forestation‐induced BGP effect (18.7 ± 61.9 tCO2e ha−1) largely reinforces the BGC effect (458.2 ± 92.6 tCO2e ha−1) in China, yielding a total climate mitigation effect of 476.9 ± 114.2 tCO2e ha−1 over 40 years (2021–2060). Under the 2060 forestation target, considering both BGC and BGP effects will displace 17.7% (15.3 Mha) of the forestation area derived by considering the BGC effect alone. Integrating both BGC and BGP effects will lead to a CO2 uptake of 28.8 GtCO2e by 2060, 3.9 GtCO2e higher than the value obtained when considering the BGC effect only. Our results highlight the importance of considering BGP effect when making forestation policies for climate mitigation. Plain Language Summary: Forestation plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change through both carbon sequestration (biogeochemical or BGC effect) and modification of land surface temperature (biogeophysical or BGP effect). Maximizing forestation contribution to global climate mitigation requires maximizing the collective effects of both BGC and BGP through converting BGP to BGC, as temperature change is fundamentally driven by atmospheric CO2 changes which are further influenced by forestation BGC effect. However, previous evaluations of China's forestation potential almost completely focused on the BGC effect. This study identified optimal forestation areas to maximize their global climate mitigation effect in China by considering both BGC and BGP effects. Considering both effects will displace 17.7% (15.3 Mha) of forestation areas determined by considering only the BGC effect under the 2060 forestation target. Considering both effects also leads to a higher CO2 uptake of 3.9 GtCO2e than the value when considering the BGC effect only by 2060. Forestation‐induced BGC and BGP effects mostly work in synergy in China, mutually enhancing the overall climate benefits. Our findings have implications for future forestation policy in China to maximize its contribution to global climate mitigation. Key Points: The biogeophysical (BGP) effect should be included in the traditional forestation policies considering only biogeochemical (BGC) effectConsidering BGC and BGP effects will lead to 17.7% of forestation area being displaced, compared to considering the BGC effect only by 2060Integrating BGC and BGP effects exhibits a 15.8% (3.9 GtCO2e) increase in CO2 uptake by 2060 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]