Future Climate Change Shifts the Ranges of Major Encroaching Woody Plant Species in the Southern Great Plains, USA.

Woody Plant Encroachment (WPE) is a key driver of grassland collapse in the Southern Great Plain (SGP), resulting in a series of adverse ecological and socioeconomic consequences. Climate change will interact with ongoing WPE as it will likely shift the potential ranges of WPE species. In this study, we employed an ensemble approach integrating results from multiple Species Distribution Models to project future distribution ranges of four major WPE species (Ashe juniper, honey mesquite, post oak, and eastern redcedar) in the SGP across the 21st century. The findings highlighted a noteworthy trend: under future climate conditions, the distribution ranges for these WPE species were projected to shift northward and eastward. Of particular concern is honey mesquite with significant expansion in distribution range, potentially covering up to two‐thirds of the SGP's non‐agricultural area by the end of the 21st century. Conversely, the other three WPE species were expected to experience a contraction in their distribution ranges. Ashe juniper may experience a decline in its current habitats in central Texas but gain new habitats in northern Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The suitable ranges of post oak and eastern redcedar were projected to shrink eastward, primarily being restricted to eastern portions of Oklahoma and Texas under the RCP4.5 and a smaller area in eastern Oklahoma under the RCP8.5. The projected shift in WPE ranges provides a scientific basis for governments to optimize the allocation of management resources and implement timely practices to control the spread of woody plants during the early encroachment stage. Our study methodology is applicable to other regions and continents with WPE issues, including Africa, South America, and Australia. Plain Language Summary: In the Southern Great Plains, the spread of woody plants like Ashe juniper, honey mesquite, post oak, and eastern redcedar is reducing grassland area and causing a series of environmental and socioeconomic problems, such as the decline in livestock carrying capacity and reduction in water availability. Future climates could change where these plants can grow. Our study is to look at how these woody plants might change their distribution pattern in the future. We found that as the climate changes, these woody plants will likely move north and east. This means honey mesquite could take over a significant portion of the Southern Great Plains by the end of the century. But while honey mesquite spreads, the other three plants might shrink in range. Ashe juniper could lose some of its current habitat but gain new areas in northern Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Post oak and eastern redcedar might only be able to grow in smaller areas in eastern Oklahoma and Texas. Knowing how these woody plants will change in their distribution can help governments develop better strategies to prevent the further loss of grasslands and the related ecological and economic benefits. Key Points: Distribution ranges for encroaching woody species in the Southern Great Plains will shift northward and eastward under future climatesHoney mesquite will undergo significant expansion potentially covering two‐thirds of the non‐agricultural area by the end of the centuryThis study provides a scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of management resources to control the spread of woody plants [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]