Influences of Space Weather Forecasting Uncertainty on Satellite Conjunction Assessment.

A significant increase in the number of anthropogenic objects in Earth orbit has necessitated the development of satellite conjunction assessment and collision avoidance capabilities for new spacecraft. Neutral mass density variability in the thermosphere, driven by enhanced geomagnetic activity and solar EUV absorption, is a major source of satellite propagation error. This work investigates the impacts of space weather driver forecasting uncertainty on satellite drag and collision avoidance maneuver decision‐making. Since most operational space weather driver forecasts do not offer an uncertainty assessment, the satellite operator community is left to make dangerous assumptions about the trustworthiness of the forecast models they use to perform satellite state propagation. Climatological persistence‐based forecast models are developed for F10.7 and Kp. These models accurately capture the heteroscedastic and, at times, highly non‐Gaussian uncertainty distribution on forecasts of the drivers of interest. A set of realistic satellite conjunction scenarios is simulated to demonstrate the contributions of space weather driver forecast uncertainty on the probability of collision and maneuver decisions. Improved driver forecasts, especially forecasts of F10.7, are demonstrated to be very useful for enabling durable maneuver decisions with additional lead time (up to 24 hr for the period examined), though the improvement depends on the specific conjunction scenario of interest. Plain Language Summary: As low earth orbit has become crowded with new satellites and debris, operators have been forced to maneuver satellites to avoid collisions on a regular basis. The drag force on a satellite, which can significantly affect the orbital path, varies depending on solar and geomagnetic activity. Unfortunately, solar activity and resulting impacts at Earth are difficult to predict even just a few days in advance. This paper traces space weather forecasting ability directly to impacts on satellite maneuver decision‐making and finds that forecast uncertainty plays a critical role in making durable maneuver decisions. Key Points: Poor forecasts of space weather drivers inhibit our ability to perform actionable satellite conjunction assessment with advance noticeClimatology‐based probabilistic forecasts are developed for F10.7 and Kp, which are used to assess satellite conjunction scenariosProviding probabilistic forecasts of the space weather drivers makes a meaningful difference in maneuver decision‐making [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]