UK forecast in detail.

This document provides an economic outlook for the UK, focusing on fiscal policy, monetary policy, prices, and wages. The forecast suggests that borrowing may exceed expectations, and the reduction in borrowing may fall short. The new government's approach to fiscal policy will play a significant role, with potential for more expansionary fiscal policy. Interest rate cuts and a gradual appreciation of the pound are predicted. Inflation is expected to rise above the Bank of England's target in late 2024. The UK economy experienced a recovery in H1 2024, with GDP rising by 0.7% in Q1 2024. Consumer spending has been weak despite growth in real household incomes. The housing market saw a strong recovery in early 2024 but has slowed down due to rising mortgage rates. Business investment has been resilient, and the labour market is loosening. The trade deficit has narrowed, but the primary and secondary income accounts moved further into deficit. Goods exports have struggled, but the data may be exaggerated and is expected to reverse soon. The current account deficit is forecasted to remain stable, and the household sector surplus has increased while the government deficit remains wide. [Extracted from the article]