Low Effectiveness of Mid-Infrared Spectroscopy Prediction Models of Mediterranean Italian Buffalo Bulk Milk Coagulation Traits.

Simple Summary: In Italy, buffalo milk is mainly transformed into 'Mozzarella di Bufala Campana', a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) cheese. A quick method for predicting the coagulation properties of the milk before cheese production could enhance the efficiency of the industry. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to evaluate the potential use of mid-infrared spectroscopy to predict milk coagulation traits in bulk milk from Mediterranean Italian buffaloes. A total of 1736 bulk milk samples from 55 farms in central Italy were analyzed. Prediction models using mid-infrared spectroscopy were built with a modified partial least-squares regression using an external validation dataset. The best prediction model was obtained for curd firmness, but it was still inaccurate enough to replace traditional methods. This study evaluated the potential use of mid-infrared spectroscopy to predict milk coagulation traits in bulk milk from Mediterranean Italian buffaloes. A total of 1736 bulk milk samples from 55 farms in central Italy were collected during the official milk quality testing system. The prediction models were developed based on modified partial least-squares regression with 75% of the samples and validated with the remaining samples. All bulk milk samples coagulated between 7.37 and 29.45 min. Average values for milk coagulation traits in the calibration set were 17.71 min, 3.29 min, and 38.83 mm for rennet coagulation time, curd firming time, and curd firmness, respectively. The validation set included samples with similar mean and standard deviation for each trait. The prediction models showed the greatest coefficient of determination of external validation (0.57) and the ratio of prediction to deviation (1.52) for curd firmness. Similar fitting statistics of the prediction models were obtained for rennet coagulation time and curd firming time. In conclusion, the prediction models for all three coagulation traits were below the threshold to consider the prediction models adequate even for rough screening of the samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]