Simulation and prediction of the dynamic evolution characteristics of resource- and technology-driven economic development models: a case study of the Yangtze River economic belt in China.

Resource-driven models and technology-driven models appear in different stages of economic development. In the early stage of industrialization, resource-driven economic development is usually the main development mode. Due to the impact of scientific progress and resource shortages, technology-driven economic growth has gradually become mainstream in the middle and late periods of industrialization. However, what are the differences between these two development models in driving economic growth? What is the asymptotic and iterative relationship between them? Understanding the interaction between the two is helpful to promote high-quality economic development. Therefore, by constructing a comprehensive evaluation framework of economic growth-resource consumption-technology progress and using the system dynamics model to simulate the evolution characteristics of the regional economic development driving force in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), the study finds that there is a long-term stable interaction between economic development and the resource- and technology-driven system in the YREB from 2015 to 2030. The energy of the simulation model is accurately reflects the regional development status, and the error of all simulation values is controlled within 5%. With the continuous improvement of economic aggregates, the contribution of technology input to economic growth gradually increases, while the driving force of resource input to economic growth shows a downward trend. Technological progress has become the most important driving force for sustainable economic development, especially the investment of technical personnel and technological capital. This study deepens the understanding of the driving mode of economic development and provides a reference for the development practice of other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]