InSAR-CTPIM-Based 3D Deformation Prediction in Coal Mining Areas of the Baisha Reservoir, China.

Time series dynamic prediction of surface deformation in mining areas can provide reference data for coal mine safety and production, which has important impacts. The combination of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technology and the probability integral method (PIM) is commonly used for predicting deformation. However, most surface subsidence prediction in mining areas is based on the static PIM parameters, failing to achieve the three-dimensional (3D) dynamic deformation prediction. This paper proposed a 3D deformation dynamic prediction model (InSAR-3D-CTPIM) between InSAR deformation observations and dynamic coordinate-time PIM (CTPIM) parameters, which can realize the prediction of east–west, north–south, and vertical series deformation caused by mining. The method has been validated by simulation experiments and real experiments in the mining area of Jiansheng Coal Mine in Baisha Reservoir, Henan Province, China. The results showed that the modeling accuracy was improved by 34.3% compared to the traditional multi-rate model, and the accuracy was improved by 28.5% compared to the vertical deformation obtained by the traditional static PIM method. The InSAR-3D-CTPIM model can be used to predict the evolutionary history of basin-wide surface deformation dynamics in coal mining areas, and provide a reference for the early warning and prediction of geological hazards in coal mining areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]