Estimating the CO2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations.

The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m−2 yr−1 ppm−1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO2 concentrations. Plain Language Summary: Through photosynthesis, plants convert CO2 and water into sugars and oxygen using solar energy, one of the most important chemical reactions on Earth. Human‐made carbon emissions are increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, impacting global photosynthesis. The additional carbon is believed to have a fertilizing effect on photosynthesis, causing vegetation to absorb a significant portion of the emitted CO2. However, the strength of this CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis is uncertain, but is a crucial factor in determining the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In this study, we introduce a new statistical method to quantify the increase in photosynthetic carbon uptake, stimulated by rising CO2, based on measurements from 38 forest sites. Our results reveal that a 100 ppm increase in CO2 enhances photosynthesis by approximately 16%. Testing the statistical method with artificial model experiments supports the robustness of our findings. Our study improves the understanding of the impacts of human‐made CO2 emissions on the global carbon cycle. Key Points: We present a novel statistical method to disentangle the variability of photosynthetic rates related to climate and non‐climate driversThe analysis from 38 eddy covariance sites reveals a 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m−2 yr−1 increase in plant productivity per ppm rise in CO2Our statistical method is successfully tested against idealized model simulations with and without increasing CO2 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]