Small Fires, Big Impact: Evaluating Fire Emission Estimates in Southern Africa Using New Satellite Imagery of Burned Area and Carbon Monoxide.

Various fire emission estimates for southern Africa during 2019, derived with multiple burned area data sets with resolutions ranging from 500 to 20 m, are evaluated using satellite carbon monoxide (CO) observations. Southern African emissions derived from burned area generated by 20 m Sentinel‐2 satellite imagery are up to 120% higher than other estimates because small fires are better detected with a higher‐resolution satellite instrument. A comprehensive comparison between simulated and observed atmospheric CO indicates that the Sentinel‐2 burned area data significantly improves emission estimates, with up to 15% reduction in CO concentration biases in comparison to emissions based on coarser resolution burned area data. We also found that the temporal lag between emissions and atmospheric CO concentrations during the peak fire month was related to atmospheric transport. These findings emphasize the importance of utilizing higher‐resolution satellite instruments in accurately estimating emissions and understanding the impact of small fires on global climate. Plain Language Summary: We studied how much carbon monoxide (CO) was released into the air in southern Africa due to fires. To derive CO emissions we used different remotely sensed data of area burned, with varying levels of detail, from 500 to 20 m, and used these emissions in a model to mimic atmospheric transport and chemistry of CO. We found that emissions derived from the very detailed 20‐m satellite images from Sentinel‐2 produced a similar large amount of CO in the atmosphere over southern Africa as seen by CO satellite observations. This is because the smaller fires, which are harder to spot, were detected with the 20‐m burned area satellite observations. We also found that the air movement and inflow of polluted air from outside Africa impacted the peak of air pollution. Key Points: Sentinel‐2 burned area detects small fires, resulting in up to 120% higher fire emissions compared to conventional resolution estimatesImproved fuel load modeling and new emission factors yield more trustworthy fire emissions that can be evaluated with top‐down constraintsAtmospheric modeling and TROPOMI CO observations indicate a 15% bias reduction using Sentinel‐2 burned area compared with coarser fire data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]