How Does this End?: The Ukraine War and the Future of Russia.

We analyze a range of future scenarios for Russia related to the Ukraine War. Although regime change is a publicly-stated objective for several leaders of NATO countries, we find very little prospect for it. The Russian economy has largely evaded the effects of the sanctions. Despite enormous casualties and incompetence in the management of the war, both Putin and the war remain popular with the Russian public. Contrary to most analysis to date, the Wagner Group mutiny of June 2023 is not an indication of Putin’s weakness, but his strength. The coercive mechanisms of the Russian state remain intact. Indeed, they have grown stronger. Finally, there is little to no prospect for the emergence of a significant antiwar movement. Regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Putin is likely to remain in power. Western leaders should begin to grapple with this unpleasant reality and its policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]