Research on the Quantitative Assessment Method of HVDC Transmission Line Failure Risk during Wildfire Disaster.

It is increasingly important to effectively predict the failure of HVDC transmission lines caused by wildfire disasters. On the basis of comprehensively considering the distribution of fire points, the characteristics of wildfire propagation, and the failure factors of the transmission line, a method for calculating the probability of failure in HVDC transmission lines during wildfire disasters is proposed to quantify the risk of HVDC transmission line failures caused by wildfire disasters. Using the ArcGIS 10.7. platform, the study examined the quantity of fire points within the buffer zone of each HVDC transmission line from 2001 to 2022. The results indicate significant variations in the number of fire incidents in the buffer zones of various transmission lines. Notably, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of fire incidents along several HVDC transmission lines, including Xizhe, Baihetan-Jiangsu, Baihetan-Zhejiang, and Fufeng, in recent years. Based on the number of fire points in the buffer zone obtained through ArcGIS processing and the proposed failure probability calculation model, six HVDC hydropower transmission channels in the Sichuan Province were analyzed. At the same time, the proposed probability calculation model was simplified, and a corresponding linear evaluation index was introduced. The regression analysis results indicate that the proposed index can effectively assess the failure risk of HVDC transmission lines during wildfire disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]