Statistical Analysis of Off‐Great Circle Radio Wave Propagation in the Polar Cap.

High latitude ionospheric density structures such as polar cap patches and arcs are capable of deflecting high frequency (HF) radio waves to off‐great circle paths, and are likely detrimental to technologies dependent on HF radio propagation. In this study, nearly 2.5 years of 4.6–14.4 MHz data from a multi‐frequency HF radio link between Qaanaaq, Greenland and Alert, Canada are used to investigate high‐latitude off‐great circle propagation in the polar cap. After an example of HF radio propagation affected by polar cap patches is shown in detail, a statistical analysis of the occurrence and impacts of off‐great circle deflections in the polar cap is presented. Off‐great circle propagation is shown to be increasingly common with increasing frequency up to 11.1 MHz, such that averaged over 1 year, received 11.1 MHz signals experienced deflections >30° from the great circle direction 65.6% of the time. The occurrence of these deflections across the year is shown to be at a maximum in the winter, while occurrence across the day varies with season. Trends across both time of day and time of year for 11.1 and 14.4 MHz deflections are consistent with polar cap patch occurrence trends. Off‐great circle deflections are shown to be associated with increased time‐of‐flights, a larger range of positive and negative Doppler shifts, increased Doppler spreads, and lower signal‐to‐noise ratios. These results are discussed in the context of ionospheric phenomena in the polar cap, and implications for over‐the‐horizon radars operating at high latitudes. Plain Language Summary: High frequency (HF) radio waves can travel long distances by bouncing between the ground and the ionosphere; an upper layer of the Earth's atmosphere, allowing them to be used for communications and surveillance in remote locations. However, strong space weather can change the paths these radio waves take, causing problems for HF radio technologies. In this paper, radio transmissions sent between Qaanaaq, Greenland and Alert, Canada are studied in order to better understand how often HF radio waves are deflected by space weather at high latitudes, and what effect these deflections have on the signals themselves. After a brief example of what space weather deflections look like, transmissions sent over a whole year are studied to determine how deflections depend on radio frequency, time of day, and time of year. Then, the effects these deflections have on other signal properties is studied. It is found that deflections are very common at high latitudes, especially in the winter. Deflections tend to increase the travel time of signals, change their frequency, and reduce their signal strength. These results are shown to be connected to polar cap patches and arcs; which are common space weather phenomena near the poles. Key Points: Off‐great circle propagation occurring in the polar cap is studied using years of data from an HF radio link in the polar capLarge (greater than 30°) deflections from the great circle are shown to be very common, especially in the winterThese deflections are shown to affect HF radio signals in ways that are consistent with interactions with polar cap patches and arcs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]