Analysis of influencing factors of supply and demand structure change of feed grain in China.

Strengthening the supply of feed grain is an important starting point for stabilizing the supply and demand of feed grain market and promoting the high-quality development of animal husbandry. Based on the monthly data samples of feed grain supply and demand structure from January 2006 to December 2022, this paper uses the VAR model to empirically analyze the feed grain supply and demand structure in China. The results showed that maize supply had the most obvious influence on feed grain supply and demand structure, followed by urban and rural residents' consumption of livestock products, and rice supply was the lowest. From the perspective of supply, the main influencing factors of feed grain supply and demand structure change include maize supply, soybean meal supply, sorghum supply, and wheat supply. From the perspective of demand, the consumption of livestock products by urban and rural residents was the main factor affecting the change of feed grain supply and demand structure. From the perspective of emergencies, natural disaster risk index was not the Granger cause of the change of feed grain supply and demand structure. Under ignoring other factors, the contribution rate of natural disaster risk index to the change of feed grain supply and demand structure after seven weeks was 23.62%. Research shows that changes in the supply and demand structure of feed grains are mainly influenced by factors such as corn supply, consumption of livestock products by urban and rural residents, soybean meal supply, sorghum supply, wheat supply, and natural disaster risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]