An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio‐Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa.

Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) infestations cause significant damage to crops and pastureland, impeding food security and livelihoods globally. In recent years, some East African countries have suffered severe desert locust outbreaks, causing significant harm to agriculture and local communities. To comprehensively understand and mitigate the socio‐economic impacts of this pest, an integrated assessment approach is crucial. This study proposes an integrated assessment model that combines ecological, economic, and social dimensions to analyze the multifaceted impacts of the desert locust on the rate of urbanization changes, farming expansion, and food production and how they lead to food unavailability (demand, supply, and price) and food and nutrition insecurity in Eastern Africa. A system dynamics‐based assessment model was first developed for Sudan using the dynamic relations among the factors and their variations over time and how they affect the socio‐economic variables. The developed model was used to spatially simulate the impacts over the entire Eastern Africa. Various scenarios were further simulated and analyzed, incorporating different policy options to effectively mitigate the impacts. Results demonstrated that in all the countries, desert locusts extensively contribute to the slowing down of farming expansion and food production and supply. Consequently, these factors lead to increased urbanization rates through people rural‐urban migration and food demand at different magnitudes across different countries. By considering both short‐term and long‐term effects, this approach aims to provide policymakers, researchers, and practitioners with a holistic understanding of the complex dynamics involved and inform effective management strategies. For example, communities equipped with accurate breeding detection tools and employing an integrated pest management strategy combining chemical pesticides and biopesticides had the highest potential for effectively mitigating the future impacts of desert locusts for enhancing community livelihood. Plain Language Summary: Desert locusts are a major problem for agriculture and communities in East Africa. They eat crops and grasslands, which can lead to food shortages and higher prices. To better understand and deal with this issue, we have created a model that looks at how locusts affect things like farming, urbanization, and food supply. We studied this in Sudan and then applied it to the whole of East Africa. The results showed that locusts make farming harder and push more people to move from rural areas to cities. This causes more demand for food in cities. The study tested different ways to deal with locusts and found that communities with good tools for detecting locusts and using both chemical and biopesticide control methods were the best at reducing the impact of locusts on their lives. This study gives policymakers and others a better understanding of how locusts affect communities and how to manage them effectively in the future. Key Points: In Eastern Africa, desert locusts swarm in vast numbers, devouring crops, and vegetation, causing crop production losses ranging from 42% to 69%The system dynamics model was employed for a comprehensive analysis of the impacts, scenarios, and policy options for mitigating desert locust effectsDesert locusts hinder farming, reduce food production, spur urbanization, and heighten food insecurity across affected Eastern African countries [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]