Inga Heiland discussion of: trade sanctions on Russia.

This article discusses the economic effects of trade sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union (EU) and its allies since the beginning of Russia's war on Ukraine. The paper presents a data-based method to estimate the impact of embargoes on specific trade flows and production in any sector and country, considering indirect linkages between sectors. The authors compare the predictions of their method with a canonical model and find comparable results. They also highlight the importance of global value chains and the heterogeneity of effects across countries and sectors. The article suggests that the approximation method is advantageous as it does not require calibrating fundamental parameters or making assumptions about general equilibrium adjustments. However, the method does rely on specific assumptions about substitution possibilities and market structure. The author suggests that the method could be further evaluated by comparing it with data on past trade embargoes and sectoral value-added growth. [Extracted from the article]