Study Results from University of California Berkeley Update Understanding of Psychology (Overprecision In the Survey of Professional Forecasters).

A study conducted by researchers at the University of California Berkeley examined the accuracy of forecasts made by the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a long-standing project that collects predictions of economic indicators. The study found that forecasters tend to be overly precise in their predictions, reporting 53% confidence in their accuracy but only being correct 23% of the time. However, there was little evidence of optimistic bias in the forecasts. The researchers used a novel methodology, splitting the dataset into exploration and validation halves, and prioritized results that were consistent in both halves. This study has important implications for organizations that rely on forecasts. [Extracted from the article]