Smart Testing with Vaccination: A Bandit Algorithm for Active Sampling for Managing COVID-19.

This paper presents methods to proactively choose individuals to test for infection during a pandemic such as COVID-19, characterized by high contagion and presence of asymptomatic carriers. We show that by a smart integration of exploration/exploitation balancing, contact tracing, and location-based sampling, one can effectively mitigate the disease spread and significantly reduce the infection rates and death rates. Under different vaccination policies and under different compliance levels to quarantine order and/or testing requests, our smart testing algorithm can bring down the death rate significantly by 20% to 30%, as well as the percentage of infected drops by approximately 30%. The load on hospitals at peak times, a crucial aspect of managing COVID-19, drops, by 50% when implementing smart testing. We also show how procedural fairness can be incorporated into our method and present results that show that this can be done without hurting the effectiveness of the mitigation that can be achieved. This paper presents methods to choose individuals to test for infection during a pandemic such as COVID-19, characterized by high contagion and presence of asymptomatic carriers. The smart-testing ideas presented here are motivated by active learning and multi-armed bandit techniques in machine learning. Our active sampling method works in conjunction with quarantine policies, can handle different objectives, and is dynamic and adaptive in the sense that it continually adapts to changes in real-time data. The bandit algorithm uses contact tracing, location-based sampling and random sampling in order to select specific individuals to test. Using a data-driven agent-based model simulating New York City we show that the algorithm samples individuals to test in a manner that rapidly traces infected individuals. Experiments also suggest that smart-testing can significantly reduce the death rates as compared with current methods, with or without vaccination. While smart testing strategies can help mitigate disease spread, there could be unintended consequences with fairness or bias when deployed in real-world settings. To this end we show how procedural fairness can be incorporated into our method and present results that show that this can be done without hurting the effectiveness of the mitigation that can be achieved. History: Ahmed Abbasi, Senior Editor; Maytal Saar-Tsechansky, Associate Editor. Funding: W. Yahav is supported by the Jeremy Coller Foundation and the Henry Crown Institute of Business Research in Israel. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2023.1215. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]