Association of Baseline Factors With Glycemic Outcomes in GRADE: A Comparative Effectiveness Randomized Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the individual and joint associations of baseline factors with glycemia, and also with differential effectiveness of medications added to metformin. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study (GRADE) participants (with type 2 diabetes diagnosed for <10 years, on metformin, and with HbA_1c 6.8–8.5%; N = 5,047) were randomly assigned to a basal insulin (glargine), sulfonylurea (glimepiride), glucagon-like peptide 1 agonist (liraglutide), or dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor (sitagliptin). The glycemic outcome was HbA_1c ≥7.0%, subsequently confirmed. Univariate and multivariate regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were used to assess the association of baseline factors with the glycemic outcome at years 1 and 4. RESULTS: In univariate analyses at baseline, younger age (<58 years), Hispanic ethnicity, higher HbA_1c, fasting glucose, and triglyceride levels, lower insulin secretion, and relatively greater insulin resistance were associated with the glycemic outcome at years 1 and/or 4. No factors were associated with differential effectiveness of the medications by year 4. In multivariate analyses, treatment group, younger age, and higher baseline HbA_1c and fasting glucose were jointly associated with the glycemic outcome by year 4. The superiority of glargine and liraglutide at year 4 persisted after multiple baseline factors were controlled for. CART analyses indicated that failure to maintain HbA_1c <7% by year 4 was more likely for younger participants and those with baseline HbA_1c ≥7.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Several baseline factors were associated with the glycemic outcome but not with differential effectiveness of the four medications. Failure to maintain HbA_1c <7% was largely driven by younger age and higher HbA_1c at baseline. Factors that predict earlier glycemic deterioration could help in targeting patients for more aggressive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]