Simulation Analysis of Flood Process in Kushan River, Xinjiang.

Under the background of global warming, extreme flood disasters occur frequently, with a particularly significant impact on Xinjiang, which is located in arid and semi-arid regions. The risk of flood disasters in this region is significantly increased. In order to improve the flood disaster response capacity of Xinjiang Province, reduce losses caused by flood disasters, and provide an example for rivers in arid areas to respond to flood disasters, this paper selects Kushan River in Xinjiang to carry out flood process simulation research. Kushan River is located at the western edge of Tarim Basin in southern Xinjiang, which is a typical river in arid inland areas. This paper constructs a flood analysis and calculation model for the Kushan River, determines the key parameters and boundary conditions of the model. A typical flood is selected to validate the constructed model, and four indicators, absolute error (AE), relative error (RE), determination coefficient (R2), and Nash coefficient (NSE), are selected for model evaluation. The calculation results show that the average absolute error of water depth is 24.1 cm, the relative error is 24%, and the determination coefficient is 0.66. The Nash coefficient of flow is 0.86, and the determination coefficient reaches 0.97, indicating that the constructed model and parameter settings have high accuracy. Using high-precision river terrain, flood disaster risk survey results, remote sensing information, a basin data base is established to calculate the flood progression, inundation range, water depth distribution, and inundation duration of the Kushan River under five typical frequencies of 10 year, 20 year, 50 year, 100 year, and 200 year, achieving large-scale simulation of flood routing in arid areas of the entire basin. The research results can provide a technical basis for flood risk analysis of rivers in arid inland areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]