TELETRAFFIC FORECASTING IN MEDIA SERVICE SYSTEMS.

Context. The development of information and communication technologies has led to an increase in the volume of information sent over the network. Media service platforms play an important role in the creation and processing of bitrate in the information network. Therefore, there is a need to develop a methodology for predicting bitrate in various media service platforms by creating an effective algorithm that minimizes the forecast error. Objective. The aim of the work is to synthesize in analytical form the state transition matrix of the Kalman filter for nonstationary self-similar processes when predicting the bitrate in telecommunication networks. Method. A methodology has been developed for predicting teletraffic in media service platforms, based on a modification of the Kalman filter for non-Gaussian processes. This methodology uses an original procedure for calculating statistics, which makes it possible to reduce the filtering and forecast error that arises due to the uncertainty of the analytical model of the process under study. The methodology does not require knowledge of the analytical model of the process, as well as strict restrictions on its stochastic characteristics. Results. A methodology for estimating and forecasting bitrate in telecommunication systems is proposed. This methodology was used to study teletraffic processes in the media service platforms Google Meet, Zoom, Microsoft Teams. The passage of real bitrate through the specified media service platforms was studied. A comparison of real teletraffic with predicted teletraffic was carried out. The influence of the order of the state transition matrix of the Kalman filter on the error of estimation and prediction has been studied. It has been established that even a low (second) order of the state transition matrix allows one to obtain satisfactory forecast results. It is shown that the use of the proposed methodology makes it possible to predict traffic with a relative error of the order of 3-4%. Conclusions. An original algorithm for assessing and forecasting the characteristics of media traffic has been developed. Recommendations for improving the technology for building media service platforms are formulated. It is shown that the bitrates generated by various media service platforms, in the case of applying the proposed estimation and forecasting methodology, are invariant with respect to the type of stochastic processes being processed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]