A train dispatching model in case of segment blockages by integrating the prediction of delay propagation.

In the high-speed railway system, trains' original timetable is often disturbed by some emergencies including geological disasters and equipment failures, which brings great influence to passengers. This paper proposes a real-time high-speed train dispatching model in case of segment blockages, where a railway network is considered. The model includes the following two parts. First, if the trains are not cancelled or decelerated after a blockage occurs, the scope of the affected trains and stations is roughly estimated via the prediction of delay propagation model. Second, with the overall delay as the objective function, this paper constructs a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model by considering the following three adjustment strategies: cancellation, delayed departure and deceleration, where the safe headway of the train operation is guaranteed by the moving blocking principle. Furthermore, to reduce the computation complexity, the solution of the model is only considered within the scope obtained in the first stage. The model is verified by using a small railway network with Nanjing as the hub station, which shows that the model is useful for reducing the effect of a disruption on original timetable, especially in comparison with the First Scheduled First Served (FSFS) rule used in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]