Pricing Under Uncertainty in Multi-Interval Real-Time Markets.

A Novel Practical Stochastic Pricing Model for Multi-Interval Real-Time Markets Practical implementations of economic dispatch with associated pricing systems are crucial for operating electricity markets. Because of the high volatility caused by the increasing integration of renewable energy, consideration of the underlying stochastic problem is becoming more important than ever. It is a challenge to incorporate the uncertain nature of real-time operations into an already complex multi-interval dynamic problem with intertemporal constraints. Because solving a standard multi-stage stochastic programming problem is too burdensome in terms of calculation time for real-time markets, it has been standard practice in electricity markets to use a deterministic approximation with varying degrees of look-ahead. Cho and Papavasiliou, in their article "Pricing Under Uncertainty in Multi-Interval Real-Time Markets", introduced a practical alternative method for pricing under uncertainty in multi-interval real-time markets. Using slightly different stochastic formulations, these authors propose an approach that preserves the attractive features from both the deterministic formulation (simpler calculation) and the standard stochastic formulation (better performance). Recent research has demonstrated that real-time auctions can generate the need for side payments, even if the market clearing models are convex, because of the rolling nature of real-time market clearing. This observation has inspired proposals for modifying the real-time market-clearing model in order to account for binding past decisions. We extend this analysis in order to account for uncertainty by proposing a real-time market-clearing model with look-ahead and an endogenous representation of uncertainty. We define two different types of expected lost opportunity cost as performance metrics. Our market-clearing model provides the price signal minimizing one of these metrics using the Stochastic Gradient Descent algorithm. We present results from a case study of the ISO New England system under a scenario of significant renewable energy penetration while accounting for ramp rates, storage, and transmission constraints. History: This paper has been accepted for the Operations Research Special Issue on Computational Advances in Short-Term Power System Operations. Funding: This work has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [Grant agreement 850540]; FEVER under Horizon 2020 [Grant 864537]. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2314. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]