Fatty liver index predicts incident risk of prediabetes, type 2 diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

To investigate the association between overweight/obesity and fatty liver index (FLI) on the odds of incident prediabetes/type 2 diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 2020 participants after 10 years follow up. At baseline (in 2001) 2020 participants, males and females, aged 24–39 years, were stratified according to body mass index (BMI), normal weight (<25 kg/m²), overweight (≥25–<30 kg/m²), or obese (≥30 kg/m²) and FLI (as high FLI ≥60 or low FLI <60). We examined the incidence of prediabetes/type 2 diabetes and NAFLD (ultrasound assessed) over 10 years to 2011 to determine the relative impact of FLI and BMI. 514 and 52 individuals developed prediabetes and type 2 diabetes during follow-up. Such individuals were older, with higher BMI, serum glucose, insulin, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and triglyceride (TG) concentrations than those who did not develop prediabetes or type 2 diabetes (n = 1454). The additional presence of high FLI significantly increased the risk of developing prediabetes and type 2 diabetes above the risk of being overweight/obese. Compared with normal weight, low FLI participants, the odds of prediabetes were ∼2-fold higher and the odds of type 2 diabetes were 9–10-fold higher respectively in the overweight/obese, high FLI group. No difference was observed between normal weight, low FLI and overweight/obese and low FLI groups. An increased FLI significantly increases the odds of incident prediabetes, type 2 diabetes and NAFLD in individuals with overweight/obese highlighting the contributory role of liver fat accumulation in the pathophysiology of prediabetes/type 2 diabetes. Obesity is a risk factor for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), prediabetes and type 2 diabetes. Additionally, NAFLD is more prevalent in people with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes when compared to age- and BMI-matched individuals. The presence of a raised fatty liver index (FLI) confers a significantly increased risk of developing prediabetes, type 2 diabetes and NAFLD above that conferred by being overweight/obese. The degree of elevation of FLI can risk stratify for incident prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in people with obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]