The impact of childcare centres' closures due to COVID-19 on women's labour supply.

Purpose: This paper evaluates the short-term impact of childcare centres' closures, due to COVID-19 restrictions, on Brazilian mothers' labour force participation and employment rates. Design/methodology/approach: Formal education is non-mandatory according to Brazilian law until the age of four, allowing the identification of children that attend childcare centres and of those that do not attend. Using data from the Brazilian Household Survey, PNAD Contínua/IBGE, the authors construct a two-period panel with women sampled in the second quarter of 2019 and 2020. The authors apply propensity score matching and differences-in-differences methods to control selection into treatment. Findings: The results show a negative impact in terms of employment for mothers whose children attended a childcare centre before the COVID-19 pandemic. But there was no impact in terms of labour force participation rates. Investigating heterogeneous effects associated with childcare centres' closures, the authors find that women with fewer years of schooling, with children aged two or three years old and located in urban areas, suffered greater penalties in the labour market due to the closure of childcare centres. Originality/value: Few studies could distinguish the pandemic effects directly associated with childcare centres' closures. The paper is the first to analyse the Brazilian case, undertaking an original approach to handle the problem of selection bias. The results help identify the most vulnerable groups of women in the labour market, shedding light on the importance of childcare centres on women's labour supply and of compensating mechanisms to serve as protection during the crisis. Peer review: The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2022-0748. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]