Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model in Mortality Forecasting.

We apply a Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregression (MSBVAR) model to mortality forecasting. MSBVAR has not previously been applied in this context, and our results show that it is a promising tool for mortality forecasting. Our model shows better forecasting accuracy than the Lee–Carter and Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models without regime-switching and while retaining the advantages of BVAR. MSBVAR provides more reliable estimates for parameter uncertainty and more flexibility in the shapes of point-forecast curves and shapes of confidence intervals than BVAR. Through regime-switching, MSBVAR helps to capture transitory changes in mortality and provides insightful quantitative information about mortality dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]