Lifetime-Citation Rates: A Mathematical Model to Compare Scientists' Work.

Under reasonable assumptions a formula is derived to project the number of citations the usual type of scientific research paper will receive. This projection, the paper's lifetime- citation rate, is based on the paper's past citations and the regularity of citation patterns. Hypothesis tests of equality of expected lifetime-citation rates per paper and multiple comparisons are also derived. With appropriate precautions comparisons may then be made of the work of scientists in similar fields who have been publishing for different lengths of time. The method is applied to the publications of members of a university department and validated in two ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]