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Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches.
- Source :
- Demography (Springer Nature); Feb1986, Vol. 23 Issue 1, p105-126, 22p
- Publication Year :
- 1986
-
Abstract
- This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00703370
- Volume :
- 23
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Demography (Springer Nature)
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 16799576
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.2307/2061412