AN ESTIMATE OF THE LONG-TERM CRUDE BIRTH RATE OF THE AGRICULTURAL POPULATION OF CHINA.

The article presents a study to estimate a long-term crude birth rate of the Chinese agricultural population. Two groups of data have been utilized in pursuing this objective. One group consists of data on crop-yield density in China according to divisions by province and the other on crude birth rates for areas. From the data, the following conclusions can be drawn: a negative relationship holds between crop-yield density and the birth rate in China and area differences in birth rates are real and not due to errors in the data. It should be noted that the negative relationship observed refers to the group aspect of the provinces in their general association of above median crop-yield density with below median birth rate, and vice versa. The reference to group aspect should also be borne in mind in the interpretation of the area differences in birth rates. Different estimates of the birth rate were obtained from the age data for the two sexes. However, when a uniform level of mortality is assumed, the average birth rates calculated for either sex on the basis of age data from certain groups of surveys are not far apart.