COALITION FORMATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY.

In coalition formation under conditions of uncertainty, the probability of coalition success is 0 < p < 1. A Coalition Expected Utility (CEU) model is proposed where coalitions with the highest expected utility are predicted to form. Two experiments were designed to test the CEU model given four of Caplow's triads in the males and in the females. The observed frequencies for both males and females supported the CEU model against Caplow's Minimum Resource Theory (X², p < .001). The partner preferences indicated that the strongest member was the most preferred partner and the weakest member was the least preferred partner (X², p < .001). Males showed a stronger tendency toward risky decisions than females. The CEU model showed a higher predictive validity than three additional deterministic theories of coalition formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]