Global Warming Reshapes European Pyroregions.

Wildland fire is expected to increase in response to global warming, yet little is known about future changes to fire regimes in Europe. Here, we developed a pyrogeography based on statistical fire models to better understand how global warming reshapes fire regimes across the continent. We identified five large‐scale pyroregions with different levels of area burned, fire frequency, intensity, length of fire period, size distribution, and seasonality. All other things being equal, global warming was found to alter the distribution of these pyroregions, with an expansion of the most fire prone pyroregions ranging respectively from 50% to 130% under 2° and 4°C global warming scenarios. Our estimates indicate a strong amplification of fire across parts of southern Europe and a subsequent shift toward new fire regimes, implying substantial socio‐ecological impacts in the absence of mitigation or adaptation measures. Plain Language Summary: Pyroregions represent the typical range of area burned, fire frequency, intensity, and seasonality that prevail in a region over long periods of time. Pyroregions are thus of great interest given their potential utility to determine regional fire patterns and foresee future alterations in response to global warming. Previous research has investigated the effects of global warming focusing on burned area and fire frequency, yet changes in fire regimes are often overlooked. In this paper, we examined the effects of global warming on pyroregions in Europe. We identified five large‐scale pyroregions reflecting different fire regimes. Future climate projections indicated an increase in fire activity and subsequent expansion of fire prone pyroregions across parts of southern Europe under warmer and drier conditions. The most fire prone pyroregions presented a spatial expansion ranging respectively from 50% to 130% under 2° and 4°C global warming scenarios with potential impacts on society. Limiting global warming would substantially reduce the expansion of the fire prone pyroregions in Europe. Key Points: This is the first study to project future changes in fire regimes on a pan‐European scaleOur projections point to an intensification and expansion of the most fire prone pyroregions in southern Europe under a warmer climateLimiting global warming would substantially reduce the expansion of the area at risk and the transition toward more intense fire regimes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]