Leading or Constraining? Development of New-Type Urbanization under Economic Growth Targets.

As an overarching goal, economic growth targets have a strong leading and constraining effect on the behavior of local governments. China's new-type urbanization strategy emphasizes balanced development across population, economic, social, space, ecological and income-gap dimensions and relies on multifaceted government policies. Therefore, setting reasonable economic growth targets has an important impact on the process of new-type urbanization. This paper uses panel data from 30 provinces between 2005 and 2020 to empirically examine the impact of economic growth targets on the new-type urbanization process. The results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth targets and new-type urbanization, with public expenditure and land finance acting as a mediator and a moderator through fiscal expenditure. The mechanisms of influence are as follows: economic growth target—infrastructure construction, regional innovation, energy structure, and financial development—population development, economic quality, ecological civilization, and income gap—new-type urbanization. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inverted U-shaped relationship is significantly present in the western and central regions of China and before 2014. This paper not only clearly illustrates the institutional mechanism of urbanization in China but also highlights its government-led and "land-for-security" approach, which has important implications for urbanization in other regions of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]