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Real time Gutenberg–Richter b-value estimation for an ongoing seismic sequence: an application to the 2022 marche offshore earthquake sequence (ML 5.7 central Italy).
- Source :
- Geophysical Journal International; Aug2023, Vol. 234 Issue 2, p1326-1331, 6p
- Publication Year :
- 2023
-
Abstract
- SUMMARY: We estimate the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes in the early stage of the Costa Marchigiana (Italy) seismic sequence, starting on 2022 November 9, with an M<subscript>L</subscript> 5.7 event in the Adriatic sea. In particular, we estimate both the completeness magnitude M<subscript>c</subscript> and the b-value within the first 4 and 7 d after the initial strong event in the sequence. Our work represents a practical example of b-value estimation in 'true' real time, that is, during the seismic sequence, and its possible interpretation in terms of short-term forecasting. We highlight some critical issues to consider both in estimating/intepreting the b-value, and in evaluating the real time estimation of M<subscript>c</subscript>. These issues are mainly due to the fact that preliminary catalogues available in real time are quite different from the revised ones, which are usually delivered after a few months. The criticalities are linked to the raw data recorded at an early-stage, an unreliable evaluation of the M<subscript>c</subscript> with statistical approaches, the Short Term Aftershock Incompleteness entailed after the initial strong event, and the magnitude binning. Our results show that real time estimation of the b-value can give insights into the evolution of an ongoing seismic sequence, when attention is paid to data quality and quantity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0956540X
- Volume :
- 234
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Geophysical Journal International
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 163251183
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad134