Predicted future range of the fall webworm in China based on different climate scenarios.

[Objectives] To predict the future range of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea) in China in order to improve the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods] Records of the Fall Webworm collected in China from 2003 to 2020 were obtained and organized, and 19 bioclimatic variables for that period were calculated based on the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly precipitation. DEM data were obtained and future climate variables under different climate scenarios were calculated. The nine most important environmental variables were identified by VIF and Spearman's rank correlation. Suitable current, and future, habitat for the Fall Webworm were then predicted based on an integrated Biomod2 model. [Results] Suitable habitat for the Fall Webworm is currently concentrated in Liaoning, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and other provinces. The range of the Fall Webworm is predicted to increase under different climate scenarios, with the overall trend being an expansion of the species' range into northeastern and southern China. [Conclusion] The results provide early warning of areas likely to be colonized by the Fall Webworm, allowing appropriate control measures to be implemented beforehand to prevent its spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]