A dynamic view of environmental regulation influence mechanism on manufacturing agglomeration-a case study of the Yangtze River Delta city cluster.

Rapid development and agglomeration of manufacturing industries in China inevitably lead to serious environmental pollution problems. The government restrains development of manufacturing industries through environmental regulation policies, but this may affect manufacturing industries agglomeration. Therefore, studying the impact of environmental regulation (ER) on manufacturing agglomeration (MA) is a critical prerequisite for the sustainability of China's manufacturing industry. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China from 2003 to 2017, this paper explores the threshold effect of ER on MA using a panel threshold model and analyzes the heterogeneity impact of ER on MA in different regions and analyzes the dynamic mechanism and contribution of each influencing factor on MA using a panel vector autoregressive model. The results show that (1) there is a double threshold effect of ER on MA, showing an inverted "U"-shaped effect of rising and then falling; there are threshold effects of ER on MA based on foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic development level (EDL). The effect of ER on MA has the threshold effect under different FDI and EDL level, in which the effect based on FDI shows an inverted "U" shape relationship of rising and then falling; the effect based on EDL shows a growing trend. (2) There are 29 cities in YRD region in the "weak regulation" or "strong regulation" stage, both of which are not conducive to MA. (3) ER has a facilitating effect on MA, but with the extension of forecast period, this facilitating effect turns into an inhibiting effect. MA is mainly influenced by itself and transportation conditions (TC). Our study can provide some insights for improving the ecological environment and promoting the development of manufacturing clusters in YRD region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]