Predictive hybrid fragility models for urban scale seismic assessment: a case study in Basilicata Region (Italy).

This paper focuses on seismic fragility and damage scenario assessment of minor Italian historical centres through the development of urban fragility curves. With reference to the case study of Balvano, a small centre located in Basilicata Region of Italy, two hybrid models have been adopted. The first is a mechanic-based hybrid model developed by the authors to derive urban fragility curves specifically; the second is the macroseismic method, originally conceived to derive typological fragility curves for single building classes, expanded to derive urban fragility curve herein. Balvano was strongly struck by 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake (M_s = 6.90) and hence subjected to an intense reconstruction process during 1980s, where almost the 80% of the buildings were reconstructed with reinforced concrete structures in the place of unreinforced masonry ones. Seismic vulnerability and damage scenarios before and after 1980 have been assessed and compared with the purpose of validating the effectiveness of the urban scale fragility curves obtained through hybrid methodologies and quantifying the effect of the 'new' seismic hazard maps and first seismic codes and recommendations released by the Italian Government in the aftermath of 1980 for the construction of new buildings or for retrofitting the existing ones. A good matching between predicted and occurred damage scenario from the research outcomes emerged, confirming the effectiveness of the urban scale hybrid fragility curves to assess seismic vulnerability at urban scale. Moreover, the comparison of the damage scenarios pre and post-reconstruction highlighted the crucial role played by the code prescriptions adopted in that years for reducing the seismic vulnerability of the municipality and the importance of the 'new' seismic hazard maps introduced in 1980s. Finally, the differences between mechanical-based hybrid and macroseismic model have been discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]